Archive for the ‘Mortgage and Finance’ Category

“Who’s on First?” Interpreting Real Estate Market News

Wednesday, May 5th, 2010

Rey_PostBy Rey Post, Managing Editor & Associate Broker, Santa Fe Realty Partners

When the calendar reads April, it means the start of baseball season. I am reminded of one of the most famous baseball comedy routines ever performed–—the “Who’s On First?” sketch between Bud Abbott and Lou Costello.  For anyone unfamiliar with the premise of this skit, perhaps best known from a live recording made in 1945, the humor lies in Abbott rattling off the unusual names of team players to a confused Costello (who’s on first; what’s on second; I don’t know is on third; and so on.) The resulting rapid-fire dialogue between these two vaudevillians produces one of the most memorable moments in stand-up comedy (in 1999, Time magazine named the routine ‘Best Comedy Sketch of the 20th Century’.)

So what does all this have to do with real estate?  Well, I see a little metaphor in the message of the skit when it comes to interpreting much of the news about the status of today’s real estate market. Turning the title of the comedy routine a bit, illustrates my point: “who’s truly on first?”

In his weekly published column, political analyst Charlie Cook observed on April 20th that people are increasingly seeking comfort in news from outlets–—whether it’s TV, radio, print, or the Internet–—where they can feel a sense of shared values with the hosts or writers. Their feelings, Cook notes, are reinforced and often amplified rather than challenged or complicated by facts that do not concur with their beliefs. Cook suggests that people are adopting the old Burger King slogan of “have it your way”–—constructing their own realities based on their own sets of facts, which are free of nuance and leave little room for gray areas.

Today’s 24/7 news cycle invites a lot of what would have to be considered negative news, since that–—as most people in the news industry know–—is what produces the kind of viewer/listener/reader ratings that “good” news can seldom match.  In this climate, it’s no wonder that–—as Charlie Cook observes–—the already challenging circumstances of our current economic situation are easily amplified by the seemingly never ending drum beat of bad news about the housing market.

It still holds true that until we can get the national unemployment rate down, address the volume of national home foreclosures/short sales and bring a renewed sense of optimism and equilibrium to the home buyer-seller equation–—then the reality of the state of the housing market will continue to closely parallel the negative editorial review coming from the media.

So, if we look at ‘first base’ as symbolically being a starting point, then (stay with me on this one!) let’s use my word twist on the title of Abbott and Costello’s comedy routine, to offer up some good news about housing–—“who’s truly on first base?”:

»    The U.S. Department of Commerce reports that nationally, the sales of newly built homes shot up 27% in March–—the largest monthly gain since 1963.  In Santa Fe, home sales in the first quarter of 2010 were up by 16% over the same period in 2009.

»    The Commerce Department also reports that nationally, the pace of new construction rose roughly 2% from February to March and applications for building permits–—a good gauge of future activity–—rose 7.5% in the same period (the highest level since October 2008.)

»    National mortgage lender Fannie Mae, suggests in their April 2010 Economic Outlook report that June 2009 was the end of the recession and that current key indicators for existing home sales, including pending home sales and purchase applications, are showing good signs of a pickup.

»    Fannie Mae’s just-issued National Housing Survey shows that: 65% of Americans still prefer owning a home; 64% think it is a good time to buy a house; 73% think housing prices will go up or stay the same; and 70% said they believe buying a home continues to be one of the safest investments available.

»    The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that vacation home sales are up nearly 8% and that 70% of these sales in 2009 were in the South and West regions of the country (good news for New Mexico.) And in a separate NAR national survey, 90% of buyers considered knowledge of the purchase process, responsiveness and knowledge of the real estate market as very important reasons for working with an agent (good news for New Mexico real estate brokers.)

This month’s article contributors offer some first-class springtime real estate commentary.  If you wish to follow-up with any of these writers, their contact information can be found under the “Contributor” column.  As always, Kate, Melissa, Susan and Jane have designed and produced a terrific publication.
So, until next month, I wish you good luck and good fortune in “ALL THINGS REAL ESTATE.”

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Link to the remote radio show pageTune in Every Sunday this summer for our special Remote Broadcasts.  Get the schedule here.

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Where to begin in 2010?

Wednesday, February 3rd, 2010

By Rey Post, Managing Editor & Associate Broker,
Santa Fe Realty Partners

A newspaper columnist captured a feeling that many of us can relate to, when he wrote at the beginning of the year: “The best thing that can be said about 2009…is that it’s over.”
For sure, last year was a challenge for most of us, no matter our profession. For those of us in the real estate business, perhaps our main consolation—generally—is that we ended 2009 with a bit of optimism that things are beginning to turn around, and the real estate market in 2010 will see a slow return to a better situation.

Beyond the facts and figures that economists and financial analysts use to spin their own assessment of where we will be taken in 2010, there are some anecdotal pieces of evidence that may be just as good a “crystal ball” as any hard data.

For instance: our real estate firm has seen more than a doubling of Internet traffic to our website—we are now averaging approximately 30,000 unique hits a month to our website by interested consumers. We also have seen—even in the dead of winter—a measurably larger turnout of people coming to look at ‘for sale’ homes featured during Sunday open house events.

These are not empirical measurements that suggest any particular trend for the real estate market. They are, however, encouraging signs of—at the very least—buyer interest. Turning interest into buyer offers, contracts and sales is, of course, the true measure of a righting of the market.

So why the change in buyer activity as we launch into 2010? Investment advisors universally site that the main change in things stems from nothing more sophisticated than an improvement in people’s moods and expectations. Chicago’s Talon Asset Management expresses it quite simply: “People were afraid (at the beginning of 2009) that the world was coming to an end, and now they are relieved that’s not going to happen.”

I also subscribe to the belief held by many other real estate professionals, as well as lenders, business leaders and politicians that now is the best time for people to participate in the purchase of real estate for some very specific reasons:

1. Home loan rates continue to be at very low levels.
2. The first-time home buyer $8,000 tax credit has been extended by Congress to mid-2010, and actually expanded to include ‘move-up’ buyers.
3. In Santa Fe and most other parts of the country, home prices have stabilized to a level that makes acquisition—in the words of one mortgage specialist—a “no-brainer” if you need, or want to buy.

The general consensus among most knowledgeable observers is that this perfect storm of moderate-to-low home prices, low borrowing costs, tax credits and available inventory, will not last much beyond the first half of 2010. In fact, the Federal tax credit expires this spring and the Federal Reserve has signaled that it will most likely not purchase additional mortgage-backed securities after April (a purchase program that helped keep mortgage interest rates low and stable throughout all of 2009).

So, to answer the question “where to begin in 2010?”—if you are a buyer who needs or wants to purchase real estate, I can’t think of any better place to start than to take advantage of where the market is as of today. As a senior financial advisor for the business television network CNBC proclaimed last week: “For those who didn’t have the opportunity to participate in the boom years of real estate in the early part of the last decade, this is your 2nd chance—you couldn’t ask for a better time to be in real estate than right now.”

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State of the Market: What’s It Worth?

Tuesday, January 12th, 2010

By Andrew Hoffman

mortgageAs a mortgage is a loan secured by real property, an appraisal is the most critical piece of information in the processing of a mortgage. The central part of an appraisal is the valuation which is supported by comparable sales.  In most parts of the US, there is a requirement that those comparable sales are no greater than 90 days old nor further than one mile from the subject property. We have some leeway in Santa Fe, though no comp can be older than 6 months and the distance must be justified by the nature of the property.

Comparables are critical to this calculation and because no two homes are exactly alike, the appraiser is  allowed only a little wiggle room for adjustments which can include the size of the lot, square footage, location, condition of the home and addition of amenities such as fireplaces, garage, in ground hot tubs and swimming pools.  The range of adjustments is usually expressed as a dollar amount based upon market conditions, but the total gross adjustments typically cannot exceed 25%.  While gardens and upgraded kitchens and bathrooms are good, size matters; larger equates to more value.

With short sales and foreclosures abundant, appraisers have challenges in establishing values.  Distressed sales can be identified as such, but for at least 90-days they can adversely affect the value of a nearby property.  All purchases agreements should be contingent upon appraised value.  Refinances become more difficult because of deterioration of valuation, but Fannie Mae — the US government-sponsored mortgage enterprise — does have a program which allows the benefits of refinancing even though the loan to value may be above 80 percent.

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A Reasonable Resolution

Tuesday, December 8th, 2009

By Rey Post, Managing Editor & Associate Broker
Santa Fe Realty Partners

We seem to be ending 2009 on an optimistic note. As I am writing this column, I can report that:

  • The Dow Industrials will probably end the year above the 10,000 mark—well above where it started in January.
  • The jobless rate dipped unexpectedly in November and employers shed the fewest number of jobs in two years.
  • Home loan rates—across the board—have dipped to their lowest level…ever.
  • The first-time home buyer $8,000 tax credit was extended by Congress to mid—2010, and actually expanded to include ‘move-up’ buyers.
  • The consensus view of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Homebuilders, and National Association of Realtors is that existing home sales are expected to increase by nearly 10% in 2010, while new homes sales and housing starts are expected to increase more than 25% in 2010.

And on top of this good economic news, research from the American Psychological Association reports something that many of us will find reassuring: the longer you live, the happier you are likely to be!

In spite of these hopeful signs, a broker colleague just suggested to me that, because of the change in the economy, the classic “win-win” scenario that has driven the dynamics of real estate transactions for many years has been replaced with an “every man for himself” mentality. The goal, according to my colleague, often seems to be simply reaching the finish line (either buying, or selling a property) no matter what occurs in the process—in other words, it’s all about winning at any cost. As a result, my colleague suggests that much of the ‘good will’ that existed in the real estate business has vanished.

Fortunately, this cheerless observation does not mirror the reality found in most real estate transactions, but I suspect most of us in the trade are having more of these moments when good will seems to go by the wayside. And indeed, the realities of a tough economy are probably the main contributors to this approach to doing business, whether you are buying, selling or overseeing (realtors) the process.
I am not one for preaching, nor do I possess any special wisdom that qualifies me for giving advice to others. But, in the spirit of making New Years’ resolutions, I would like to offer a 2010 resolution for all of us involved in real estate. Specifically— let’s enter this new year with the belief that embracing the old practice of finding a winning outcome for all parties involved is better than simply pursuing a path that provides any one of us with the singular sense of success.

Whether or not you subscribe to his politics or policies, our new President often reminds us that to exit the current economic challenges we are facing, we all need to pull together to succeed. In other words: we are all in this thing together and no one group, person, or interest can lay claim to success at the expense of the rest of us.

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State of the Market: A Pointless Experience

Friday, October 23rd, 2009

By Andrew Hoffman
Borrowers focus on interest rate as the means for evaluating one lender against another.  I believe that the cost of the loan is a more important qualifier and loan origination or discount (usually referred to as “points”) may be the largest component.  Simply put, there is an inverse relationship between rate and points: as rate goes down, points go up.

There is a very simple calculation which will tell you when it is “worth” paying points to get a lower rate.  Here is an example:

• The payment on a $200,000 loan at 5.25% with zero points is $1,104
• The payment on a $200,000 loan at 5.00% with one point is $1,073

The difference is $30, however, it costs 1 point (or one percent of the loan amount) which is $2,000.  To figure it all out, divide $2000 by 30, and you find that it takes 67 months (or 5.5 years) to earn back the difference—the point at which you break even on your investment.
It seems to me that 5½ years is a long time and since most people refinance within that time, it may not be a good investment.  If the number was 36 months or less, I might be more interested.  If I knew that I was going to be in that home and that loan for the rest of my life, I also might be motivated.

With a 30-year fixed rate loan in the present rate environment, one point usually buys the rate down by .25%.  I have a personal bias against charging points and almost always quote rates without points in order to keep my client’s costs low.

So, here’s an insider’s secret: to compare apples to apples in the interest rate game, ask for a rate with 0 points.

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Is It The Right Time To Build?

Tuesday, September 22nd, 2009

By Dina & Jeff Major, Principals
Major Development, Inc.

cerroThe question on most peoples’ minds in this economy is: “Why build right now?” or “Is now a good time to improve my house?”  In our opinion, and yes we are a bit biased considering we are builders, now is an excellent time to build.  All the financial news of late suggests that we are at the bottom of this recession and even housing sales are taking a turn for the positive.  New construction in Santa Fe has slowed to a crawl just like the rest of the country, however we do not have the “new home” inventory that you would more likely see in the major metropolitan areas.  As a result, material and subcontractor costs have come down and General Contractors are much more competitive in their pricing.  In addition, builders are not spread as thin as they were in recent years, allowing for the attention you deserve in your project.

With the current low interest rates, a homeowner has the ability to add on to their home and then refinance with an increased home value without much, or any increase to their mortgage.  We just completed a new addition for a homeowner who refinanced his house, including the cost of the addition, and his mortgage payments actually went down due to the low interest rates that are presently available.

When this downturn completes its cycle (which most knowledgeable observers agree is just around the corner), builders will be in a flurry to restart their own projects, leaving them less negotiable, and interest rates are bound to rise. Summer is a great time to begin your new home so it can be “dried in” before winter and ready for your enjoyment in the spring.  And to incentivize our new customers, Major Development, Inc. is currently offering a summer special of 20% off any project over $10,000.

We are optimistic about the future and believe that current conditions in the Santa Fe real estate market present terrific opportunities for home building and renovation work.

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State of the Market: The Times They Are A-Changin’

Monday, September 21st, 2009

By Andrew Hoffman, Advisor to
“ALL THINGS REAL ESTATE”  Radio Show

mortgageOh, how correct Bob Dylan was when he wrote this song 40 years ago! Not only has the mortgage market suffered through the most chaotic period ever, but now, in response to the chaos, the regulators are wielding their might axes to make sure that it never happens again.

As of July 30, there are new regulations which may impede the process of loan origination, in the name of providing more complete disclosure to the consumer. The major changes have to do with timing. The revised rule prohibits creditors or any lender or agent from imposing any fee other than a bona fide and reasonable credit report fee until the consumer has received the initial disclosures. If delivered via regular mail, the disclosures are considered received 3 business days after they are mailed. Additionally, the loan cannot close (document signing) until 7 business days after the initial disclosure has been mailed. If the APR (annual percentage rate) at consummation increases by more than .125% from the previously disclosed APR, a re-disclosure must be given. The loan cannot close until 3 business days after the re-disclosure is received by the borrower.

This does force loan originators to be more accurate in disclosing fees, but we are not off the hook by over-estimating. It delays ordering the appraisal by at least three days after application, and it has the potential to delay closing if the disclosure changes.  Worse still, these provisions are subject to interpretation by any given lender.

Disclosure and accuracy are important; however the impact of these new rules on the loan closing process needs to be fully understood by all parties involved in any real estate transacti

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A Home Equity Line of Credit Might Be Right For You

Thursday, September 17th, 2009

By Ian MacGillivray, Business Development Officer
Los Alamos National Bank

A Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) is offered by banks, savings and loans, brokerage firms, credit unions and other mortgage lenders. A HELOC allows the homeowner to tap into the equity in his or her home. The equity in your home is the difference between its value and what you owe on it.

This account is a revolving credit mortgage, which owners can access quickly with the ease and convenience of a check or a credit card. This means that you can borrow, pay back, and then borrow again. By using the equity in your home you may qualify for a sizable amount of credit, available for use when and how you please.  For example, you might want this type of loan in order to add a room to your home, for your child’s college tuition, to pay off existing debt—such as high interest rate credit cards—or for use in an emergency.

The term of the loan can be as long as 15 or 30 years, and payments can range from interest-only payments to payment of both principal and interest. Interest rates on a HELOC can be fixed or variable, though are typically variable. No payments are required until money is advanced (via checks or credit card), and then payments are based only on the current outstanding balance, not the whole line of credit.

Some programs require you to pay closing costs, an initial sign-up fee, annual maintenance fee, or a payment of additional fees called points when the credit line is tapped.  When shopping for a HELOC loan, it is best to ask about any fees, rate changes or restrictions that may be associated with the loan.

Interest on such loans may be tax deductible. Consult a tax professional for the latest information on what qualifies as a tax deduction.

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